EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Capybara Cards DTR Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Exia

58.2%

2.6% share · 11 matches

10.5% share · 26 matches

3rd

Fire Rile

56.8%

44.7% share · 76 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Crux Mage	4	10.5%	26	73.1%	66.5%	63.8%	61.9%	1400	—
2	Fire Exia	1	2.6%	11	72.7%	65.2%	58.2%	57.0%	1493	↑ top
3	Fire Rile	17	44.7%	76	59.2%	55.1%	56.8%	54.3%	1427	—
4	Horse and Taxes	1	2.6%	6	50.0%	38.1%	50.0%	45.1%	1633	↑ top
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	7.9%	13	50.0%	43.2%	48.0%	45.3%	1497	↑ top
6	Fire Slimes	2	5.3%	17	47.1%	49.2%	47.7%	49.2%	1339	—
7	Fire Suzaku	5	13.2%	32	45.3%	57.9%	47.4%	54.9%	1245	↓ low
8	Wind Seiryuu	2	5.3%	19	42.1%	44.6%	46.8%	46.8%	1315	↓ low
9	Fire Aggro	4	10.5%	28	42.9%	35.0%	46.3%	40.8%	1388	—
10	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.6%	8	43.8%	47.1%	46.0%	47.3%	1284	↓ low
11	Fire Crux Lorraine	3	7.9%	14	42.9%	53.6%	44.5%	49.5%	1457	↑ top
12	Wind Shadowstrike	11	28.9%	56	38.4%	41.3%	41.5%	43.0%	1378	—
13	Fire Suited	1	2.6%	4	0.0%	41.3%	35.1%	44.5%	1064	↓ low