Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
decks
4
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
38
16-21-1
overall winrate
43.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
44.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1386
· range 1191–1442
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1269
Q3 1443
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 47.7% | -1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.4% | -7.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.2% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
