Water FractalTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
decks
3
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
10-10-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.3%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1290
· median 1299
· range 1222–1348
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1269
Q3 1443
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 54.4% | +2.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.6% | +3.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
