Fire OblationTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 15 | 8-6-1 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 49.4% | -0.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.7% | +0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.5% | -5.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 11 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |