Fire Crux MageTier 1
at CakeTCG Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 22 | 11-9-2 | 54.5% | 53.8% | 51.0% | +0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.1 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.4% | -0.4 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -3.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 59.6% | +7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.3% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | -4.7 |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Ignorance | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 |