Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at CakeTCG Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 27 | 15-9-3 | 61.1% | 59.7% | 56.6% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 63.0% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 55.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.7% | +3.5 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.1% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.1% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.0% | +8.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 42.0% | -5.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.9% | +1.7 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.4% | -3.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 41.5% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -3.9 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Regal Inquisition, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Vanish from Sight. Losers more often ran: Thieving Cut, Nullifying Mirror, Evercurrent Raider.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thieving Cut | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |