Horse and TaxesTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
decks
4
(3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
26-12-1
overall winrate
67.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
57.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1456
· median 1458
· range 1250–1656
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1269
Q3 1443
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 13 | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 51.1% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 58.0% | +5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 56.3% | +4.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.5% | +5.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Horse and Taxes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
