Water AlliesTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
8-3-0
overall winrate
72.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
58.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1481
· median 1481
· range 1481–1481
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1269
Q3 1443
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
