Water Crux MageTier 2
at CakeTCG Online Regional
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-3-3
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1262–1262
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1269
Q3 1443
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 51.0% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
