← 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 63.4% | +8.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.0% | -4.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 20.4% | -22.1 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.2 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -7.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.5% | +15.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Hone by Fire, Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin. Losers more often ran: Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Tempered Steel.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Galed Erasure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |