← 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.9% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.3% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 79.6% | +22.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.1% | -20.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +14.8 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 57 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 57 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shackled Theurgist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coy Bouclier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Memento Mori | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scorched Conquest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torch Marshal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrant Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Whimsy's Warden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devotion's Price | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Leporine Masque | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcism | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lacuna's Grasp | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |