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Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 59.0% | +5.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.3 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -6.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 5 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 5 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |