← 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Fire Crux MageTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.6% | +11.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +1.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +7.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.4% | -4.3 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.9% | +5.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +4.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 28.8% | -15.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Flamewreath Call.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |