← 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Water Tera MageTier 2
at 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
3
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-6-4
overall winrate
61.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.3%
avg ELO +3.9 per match
expected value
53.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1342
· median 1355
· range 1282–1388
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1021
Q1 1163
Q3 1382
1656
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.9% | +9.5 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
