← 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 10/11 Regionals - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Manastreak | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebound Draug | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrant Sentinel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |