Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
9
(14.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
24-15-4
overall winrate
60.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1406
· median 1393
· range 1241–1730
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
44% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 7 | 6-0-1 | 92.9% | 77.3% | 69.2% | +9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 27.8% | -12.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.8% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.2% | -20.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 61.1% | +8.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Hasty Messenger, Staggering Strike. Losers more often ran: Sword of Seeking, Crux Sight, Flame Sweep.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit Blade: Dispersion
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Lorraine, Spirit Ruler
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Lorraine, Crux Knight
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Demolition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |