Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
9
(14.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
18-14-4
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
49.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1319
· median 1266
· range 1248–1597
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 7 | 0-6-1 | 7.1% | 22.7% | 30.8% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.5% | +10.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Ensnaring Fumes, Mastermind Scheme, Scatter Essence. Losers more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Resolute Stand, Cry for Help.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Mastermind Scheme
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Scatter Essence
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Cry for Help
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirelle, Schwartz Queen
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 19 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.57 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Winbless Lookout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |