Water GenbuTier 1
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
3
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
11-4-4
overall winrate
68.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.6%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
55.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1358
· range 1267–1469
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.8 |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
