Water AlliesTier 2
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
3
(4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-9-1
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.2%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1249
· range 1110–1412
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
