← 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional

Water AlliesTier 2

at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional

decks
3 (4.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18 8-9-1
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.2% avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
47.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257 · median 1249 · range 1110–1412 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002 Q1 1214 Q3 1406 1730
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Crux Lorraine 14.1% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.3
Wind Shadowstrike 14.1% 0
Fire Suzaku 10.9% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -2.1
Water Fractal 7.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.8% -22.7
Water Aetherwing 6.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -13.9
Wind Seiryuu 6.2% 0
Water Genbu 4.7% 0
Fire Aggro 3.1% 0
Fire Crux Mage 3.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Wind Wakeup Combo 3.1% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.5% -0.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.6% 0
Fire Neos 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.6% +5.7
Fire Oblation 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.0% +6.4
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.6% 0
Fire Suited 1.6% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.3% +10.1
Slimes 1.6% 0
Water Astra Cleric 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.7% -16.5
Water Umbra Ciel 1.6% 0
Wind Byakko 1.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.6% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.6% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.6% 0
Wind Tonoris 1.6% 0
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/32466/archetypes/Water Allies