Fire SuzakuTier 2
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.5% | -10.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.7% | -3.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.3 |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Spark Alight, Intensified Pyre, Flamewreath Call. Losers more often ran: Cinder Geyser.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |