Fire NeosTier 3
at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -3.2 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1099
· median 1099
· range 1099–1099
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1214
Q3 1406
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tonoris | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
