← Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.1% | 8 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.4% | 59.2% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 2.1% | 8 | 68.8% | 60.8% | 55.8% | 54.5% | 1250 | — |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 1 | 2.1% | 11 | 63.6% | 69.1% | 55.6% | 62.1% | 1262 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 6.4% | 21 | 59.5% | 57.6% | 55.1% | 54.8% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 4.3% | 13 | 69.2% | 60.3% | 54.9% | 53.4% | 1394 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 12.8% | 44 | 56.8% | 52.2% | 54.6% | 52.0% | 1299 | — |
| 7 | Fire Rile | 17 | 36.2% | 91 | 56.6% | 55.6% | 54.0% | 54.3% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 6.4% | 21 | 57.1% | 47.5% | 52.8% | 47.6% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.0% | 52.5% | 50.2% | 1419 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Allies | 2 | 4.3% | 14 | 46.4% | 46.8% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Genbu | 1 | 2.1% | 9 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 1337 | — |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 5 | 10.6% | 35 | 45.7% | 42.4% | 46.9% | 45.0% | 1284 | — |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 2 | 4.3% | 17 | 41.2% | 43.3% | 45.4% | 45.6% | 1313 | — |
| 14 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 6.4% | 23 | 45.7% | 50.3% | 43.2% | 47.5% | 1239 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 8.5% | 27 | 40.7% | 41.2% | 42.8% | 43.4% | 1238 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Exia | 1 | 2.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 48.9% | 42.1% | 47.5% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 2.1% | 7 | 21.4% | 38.9% | 41.6% | 44.9% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Allies | 2 | 4.3% | 15 | 33.3% | 40.5% | 40.4% | 43.1% | 1252 | — |
| 19 | Slimes | 1 | 2.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 32.9% | 38.9% | 37.4% | 1455 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Wind Exia | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 44.1% | 38.7% | 44.3% | 1111 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Suited | 2 | 4.3% | 13 | 30.8% | 40.5% | 38.4% | 40.8% | 1282 | — |
| 22 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 2.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 39.8% | 37.6% | 42.1% | 1174 | ↓ low |