Fire RileTier 1
at DTR STORE CHAMPS
decks
14
(28.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
75
47-23-5
overall winrate
66.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
59.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1388
· median 1396
· range 1125–1642
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1141
Q3 1360
1642
64% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
7% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 42.1% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 62.6% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 11 | 7-3-1 | 68.2% | 63.3% | 56.3% | +2.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.0% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -2.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 52.8% | +1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.0% | +10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.8% | +8.1 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.4% | +4.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.8% | -1.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Demolition, Rending Flames, Vengeful Paramour. Losers more often ran: Fast Cure, Dungeon Guide, Cremation Ritual.
Demolition
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Vengeful Paramour
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Blazing Throw
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Fast Cure
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Uncover the Plot
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Excalibur, Cleansing Light
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Vanish from Sight
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 128 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 108 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demolition | +0.50 | 6 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.40 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.40 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.30 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gleaming Cut | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Luxem Sight | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rapid Combustion | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Death Essence Amulet | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Fireball | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |