Water AlliesTier 1
at DTR STORE CHAMPS
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 28.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 52.2% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 12.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.7% | +14.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.5% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Slimes | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 26 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intervention | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xia Hou Dun, Gloryseeker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Quan, Sealbearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automated Gardener | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |