EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Michigan DTR Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Horse and Taxes | 3 | 3.4% | 25 | 66.0% | 51.7% | 58.7% | 53.4% | 1484 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 6.9% | 57 | 66.7% | 59.1% | 57.8% | 54.4% | 1353 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 2.3% | 19 | 68.4% | 65.6% | 57.5% | 57.4% | 1248 | — |
| 4 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 62.5% | 59.8% | 56.2% | 55.7% | 1192 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 62.5% | 57.9% | 56.1% | 55.7% | 1316 | — |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.1% | 11 | 54.5% | 56.4% | 55.4% | 56.6% | 1226 | — |
| 7 | Wind Allies | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.5% | 55.1% | 53.4% | 1120 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.3% | 54.3% | 53.2% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 6 | 6.9% | 50 | 62.0% | 56.9% | 52.9% | 52.6% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Allies | 4 | 4.6% | 41 | 61.0% | 69.8% | 52.2% | 58.6% | 1294 | — |
| 11 | Fire Rile | 38 | 43.7% | 228 | 53.7% | 52.2% | 52.0% | 51.1% | 1307 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.1% | 11 | 63.6% | 46.1% | 52.0% | 45.0% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 3.4% | 28 | 57.1% | 55.5% | 51.4% | 51.9% | 1308 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 7 | 8.0% | 67 | 51.5% | 46.2% | 51.4% | 48.1% | 1333 | — |
| 15 | Water Fractal | 2 | 2.3% | 18 | 50.0% | 36.8% | 51.0% | 42.6% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.1% | 10 | 65.0% | 52.0% | 50.2% | 48.5% | 1415 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 50.2% | 53.3% | 1200 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Suited | 5 | 5.7% | 41 | 54.9% | 53.6% | 49.7% | 50.3% | 1338 | — |
| 19 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 4.6% | 38 | 42.1% | 45.2% | 47.7% | 48.6% | 1228 | — |
| 20 | Wind Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.1% | 11 | 45.5% | 49.2% | 45.8% | 47.3% | 1165 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Exia | 4 | 4.6% | 31 | 46.8% | 49.3% | 44.9% | 47.5% | 1263 | — |
| 22 | Water Zander | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 44.4% | 40.8% | 43.9% | 41.3% | 1274 | — |
| 23 | Fire Oblation | 3 | 3.4% | 28 | 37.5% | 54.2% | 43.5% | 53.0% | 1240 | — |
| 24 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 37.5% | 35.4% | 43.1% | 41.3% | 1285 | — |
| 25 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | 45.1% | 1297 | — |
| 26 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 42.7% | 42.5% | 46.9% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Astra Diana | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 31.2% | 37.8% | 42.0% | 40.2% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 31.2% | 43.0% | 41.1% | 43.1% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 3.4% | 22 | 36.4% | 48.3% | 40.5% | 45.3% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Diana | 1 | 1.1% | 7 | 28.6% | 38.8% | 40.5% | 42.8% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 26.8% | 40.0% | 42.6% | 1045 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Penguin Mill | 2 | 2.3% | 14 | 32.1% | 42.7% | 38.1% | 43.7% | 1232 | — |
| 33 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 16.7% | 27.4% | 35.2% | 34.2% | 1068 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 1.1% | 9 | 11.1% | 31.7% | 35.1% | 38.0% | 1056 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 34.6% | 43.4% | 967 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.1% | 8 | 12.5% | 34.5% | 31.7% | 39.8% | 1077 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Fire Suzaku | 3 | 3.4% | 28 | 21.4% | 31.6% | 29.6% | 33.7% | 1150 | ↓ low |