EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at I SCRUBBED OUT OF STEEL.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.8% | 12 | 75.0% | 50.9% | 59.3% | 50.4% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 0.8% | 12 | 75.0% | 50.9% | 59.3% | 50.4% | 1453 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Fractal | 2 | 1.6% | 20 | 65.0% | 52.8% | 56.4% | 51.3% | 1346 | — |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 6 | 4.7% | 48 | 61.5% | 50.7% | 55.2% | 50.4% | 1362 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 3.1% | 37 | 51.4% | 50.2% | 54.2% | 50.4% | 1304 | — |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 10 | 7.8% | 92 | 57.6% | 51.9% | 54.0% | 51.3% | 1352 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 13 | 10.2% | 114 | 57.9% | 51.3% | 53.9% | 50.7% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Rile | 68 | 53.1% | 399 | 54.6% | 50.4% | 53.6% | 50.3% | 1345 | — |
| 9 | Fire Exia | 4 | 3.1% | 35 | 57.1% | 51.2% | 52.8% | 50.7% | 1346 | — |
| 10 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 5 | 3.9% | 49 | 53.1% | 50.3% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 1339 | — |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 0.8% | 12 | 66.7% | 50.8% | 51.5% | 49.4% | 1519 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 5 | 3.9% | 49 | 51.0% | 51.4% | 49.8% | 50.9% | 1321 | — |
| 13 | Wind Allies | 5 | 3.9% | 46 | 47.8% | 49.9% | 49.8% | 50.3% | 1319 | — |
| 14 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.8% | 11 | 45.5% | 50.0% | 49.3% | 50.1% | 1223 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.8% | 4 | 25.0% | 45.8% | 48.4% | 48.6% | 1392 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Horse and Taxes | 10 | 7.8% | 99 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 48.2% | 49.3% | 1325 | — |
| 17 | Wind Seiryuu | 9 | 7.0% | 96 | 47.9% | 49.2% | 47.8% | 49.2% | 1356 | — |
| 18 | Fire Suzaku | 9 | 7.0% | 63 | 49.2% | 49.2% | 46.9% | 49.3% | 1307 | — |
| 19 | Fire Oblation | 6 | 4.7% | 50 | 45.0% | 47.9% | 45.6% | 48.6% | 1355 | — |
| 20 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 0.8% | 8 | 37.5% | 46.3% | 44.5% | 47.6% | 1449 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Wind Shadowstrike | 15 | 11.7% | 132 | 42.0% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 49.4% | 1307 | — |
| 22 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 0.8% | 9 | 44.4% | 51.4% | 44.1% | 50.3% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 2.3% | 21 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 43.0% | 48.9% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.6% | 19 | 42.1% | 47.9% | 42.2% | 48.2% | 1348 | — |
| 25 | Water Kongming | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 16.7% | 47.7% | 41.6% | 49.6% | 1267 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Fire Suited | 3 | 2.3% | 19 | 31.6% | 49.3% | 41.1% | 49.5% | 1297 | — |
| 27 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 1.6% | 21 | 33.3% | 50.4% | 40.7% | 50.1% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Genbu | 1 | 0.8% | 6 | 16.7% | 46.1% | 40.4% | 48.1% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Slimes | 2 | 1.6% | 18 | 30.6% | 51.8% | 40.3% | 50.8% | 1225 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 1.6% | 9 | 0.0% | 46.7% | 36.2% | 49.0% | 1285 | — |
| 31 | Water Allies | 2 | 1.6% | 11 | 18.2% | 47.5% | 33.9% | 47.8% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 0.8% | 10 | 20.0% | 45.9% | 32.8% | 47.1% | 1397 | ↑ top |
| 33 | Water Astra Ranger | 2 | 1.6% | 15 | 6.7% | 45.5% | 27.4% | 47.0% | 1380 | ↑ top |