← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.9 per match
expected value
60.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1437
· median 1437
· range 1437–1437
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1161
Q3 1310
1508
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
