← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
8-6-2
overall winrate
56.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.0%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1339
· median 1387
· range 1184–1446
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1161
Q3 1310
1508
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.3% | -23.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -3.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
