← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
4
(6.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-9-1
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
59.5%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
53.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1303
· median 1310
· range 1229–1364
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1161
Q3 1310
1508
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.0% | +22.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.5% | +19.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
