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Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
3
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
1-9-1
overall winrate
13.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.2%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
40.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1148
· median 1137
· range 1130–1175
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1161
Q3 1310
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.7% | -5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
