Distorted Reflections - Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Suzaku	Tier 2	7	11.1%	15-17-1	47.0%	52.4%	47.3%	49.4%	1195	↓ low
2		Fire Firebloom Burn	Tier 1	5	7.9%	11-10-2	52.2%	48.4%	53.1%	51.0%	1281	—
3		Slimes	Tier 1	5	7.9%	10-9-2	52.4%	55.3%	52.7%	53.5%	1207	—
4		Fire Suited	Tier 1	4	6.3%	11-9-1	54.8%	59.5%	53.0%	54.0%	1303	↑ top
5		Fire Umbra Ranger	Tier 2	3	4.8%	1-9-1	13.6%	28.2%	40.7%	42.6%	1148	↓ low
6		Water Fractal	Tier 2	3	4.8%	8-6-2	56.2%	43.0%	48.9%	45.4%	1339	↑ top
7		Wind Allies	Tier 1	3	4.8%	12-0-3	90.0%	73.4%	61.5%	58.5%	1414	↑ top
8		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	3	4.8%	9-6-1	59.4%	52.0%	53.5%	49.8%	1326	↑ top
9		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	3.2%	6-5-0	54.5%	51.9%	45.2%	44.9%	1213	—
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	2	3.2%	1-5-0	16.7%	35.3%	40.9%	42.6%	1134	↓ low
11		Fire Exia	Tier 2	2	3.2%	3-3-0	50.0%	52.9%	52.0%	52.0%	1142	↓ low
12		Water Aetherwing	Tier 2	2	3.2%	7-6-0	53.8%	53.9%	52.4%	51.5%	1235	—
13		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	2	3.2%	1-8-0	11.1%	34.8%	42.7%	46.3%	1062	↓ low
14		Water Genbu	Tier 2	2	3.2%	0-5-1	8.3%	28.1%	42.5%	43.4%	1219	—
15		Wind Neos	Tier 2	2	3.2%	2-5-1	31.2%	38.2%	42.7%	43.5%	1167	↓ low
16		Wind Razorgale	Tier 2	2	3.2%	3-5-0	37.5%	51.7%	51.7%	53.9%	1171	↓ low
17		Fire Crux Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.6%	4-3-0	57.1%	50.8%	53.0%	51.8%	1389	↑ top
18		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.6%	5-1-0	83.3%	55.5%	60.0%	54.2%	1437	↑ top
19		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	46.4%	43.1%	46.2%	1133	↓ low
20		Fire Umbra Ciel	Tier 3	1	1.6%	1-2-0	33.3%	41.9%	47.1%	46.3%	1182	↓ low
21		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	1	1.6%	3-2-1	58.3%	45.9%	54.1%	50.9%	1313	↑ top
22		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	1	1.6%	1-2-0	33.3%	52.9%	51.7%	54.9%	1187	↓ low
23		Water Dawn of Ashes	Tier 3	1	1.6%	0-3-0	0.0%	29.4%	34.8%	35.7%	1153	↓ low
24		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 3	1	1.6%	0-3-0	0.0%	29.6%	40.0%	40.1%	1268	—
25		Water Tera Kongming	Tier 2	1	1.6%	4-1-1	75.0%	60.1%	56.9%	55.1%	1265	—
26		Water Tera Mage	Tier 2	1	1.6%	4-0-2	83.3%	57.7%	55.0%	51.3%	1446	↑ top
27		Wind Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	1.6%	3-3-0	50.0%	41.8%	51.7%	48.4%	1411	↑ top
28		Wind Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	1.6%	4-1-1	75.0%	64.6%	54.2%	53.2%	1248	—
29		Wind Lorraine	Tier 2	1	1.6%	5-2-0	71.4%	62.5%	55.3%	55.6%	1352	↑ top
30		Wind Luxem Assassin	Tier 3	1	1.6%	2-4-0	33.3%	39.9%	46.2%	46.2%	1225	—
31		Wind Seiryuu	Tier 3	1	1.6%	3-4-0	42.9%	58.0%	46.0%	49.9%	1224	—
32		Wind Wakeup Combo	Tier 2	1	1.6%	4-2-0	66.7%	59.6%	54.1%	53.8%	1269	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Suzaku 7 decks · 11.1%
• Fire Firebloom Burn 5 decks · 7.9%
• Slimes 5 decks · 7.9%
• Fire Suited 4 decks · 6.3%
• Fire Umbra Ranger 3 decks · 4.8%
• Water Fractal 3 decks · 4.8%
• Wind Allies 3 decks · 4.8%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 4.8%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Arcane 2 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Exia 2 decks · 3.2%
• Water Aetherwing 2 decks · 3.2%
• Water Astra Cleric 2 decks · 3.2%
• Water Genbu 2 decks · 3.2%
• Wind Neos 2 decks · 3.2%
• Wind Razorgale 2 decks · 3.2%
• Fire Crux Lorraine 1 deck · 1.6%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.6%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.6%
• Fire Umbra Ciel 1 deck · 1.6%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 1.6%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 1.6%
• Water Dawn of Ashes 1 deck · 1.6%
• Water Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 1.6%
• Water Tera Kongming 1 deck · 1.6%
• Water Tera Mage 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Astra Cleric 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Crux Mage 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Lorraine 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Seiryuu 1 deck · 1.6%
• Wind Wakeup Combo 1 deck · 1.6%