← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Suited | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.7% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 71.1% | +15.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jianye, Dawn's Keep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |