← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Distorted Reflections - Regionals
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-6-0
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
52.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1235
· median 1235
· range 1191–1279
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1161
Q3 1310
1508
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 11.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Slimes | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Suited | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
