EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 12/20 PTM Online Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 2.5% | 14 | 67.9% | 56.5% | 58.6% | 53.6% | 1391 | — |
| 2 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.2% | 9 | 66.7% | 50.1% | 58.3% | 51.3% | 1539 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.5% | 13 | 65.4% | 49.4% | 56.5% | 51.2% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aetherwing | 2 | 2.5% | 12 | 62.5% | 53.5% | 55.9% | 52.8% | 1454 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Horse and Taxes | 2 | 2.5% | 9 | 72.2% | 56.3% | 54.8% | 52.1% | 1333 | — |
| 6 | Wind Arcane | 3 | 3.7% | 16 | 56.2% | 54.1% | 54.7% | 52.5% | 1376 | — |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 3.7% | 16 | 46.9% | 50.7% | 53.7% | 52.6% | 1320 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 2.5% | 12 | 58.3% | 58.0% | 53.3% | 53.4% | 1254 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Arcane | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 57.1% | 50.5% | 52.9% | 51.4% | 1393 | — |
| 10 | Water Aetherwing | 5 | 6.2% | 23 | 54.3% | 50.9% | 52.3% | 51.1% | 1356 | — |
| 11 | Fire Oblation | 10 | 12.3% | 54 | 57.4% | 50.9% | 52.1% | 50.0% | 1381 | — |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 2.5% | 14 | 67.9% | 58.1% | 51.8% | 51.6% | 1486 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Genbu | 2 | 2.5% | 11 | 63.6% | 54.3% | 51.5% | 51.0% | 1388 | — |
| 14 | Wind Seiryuu | 7 | 8.6% | 39 | 50.0% | 50.4% | 51.1% | 50.5% | 1380 | — |
| 15 | Fire Crux Merlin | 2 | 2.5% | 10 | 60.0% | 58.1% | 50.9% | 52.5% | 1331 | — |
| 16 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.5% | 10 | 60.0% | 46.2% | 50.0% | 47.7% | 1340 | — |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.2% | 6 | 58.3% | 52.9% | 48.9% | 49.4% | 1491 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 4 | 4.9% | 20 | 55.0% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 49.2% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.2% | 5 | 30.0% | 42.1% | 47.5% | 47.2% | 1346 | — |
| 20 | Water Fractal | 3 | 3.7% | 16 | 40.6% | 44.7% | 47.4% | 48.5% | 1432 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 33.3% | 39.3% | 46.7% | 45.0% | 1563 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Wind Astra Cleric | 11 | 13.6% | 44 | 38.6% | 45.1% | 45.7% | 48.1% | 1321 | — |
| 23 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.4% | 45.5% | 47.7% | 1412 | — |
| 24 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 33.3% | 52.3% | 45.0% | 50.5% | 1116 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Umbra Alice | 2 | 2.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 45.9% | 44.7% | 48.9% | 1307 | — |
| 26 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 3.7% | 12 | 16.7% | 42.2% | 43.6% | 47.7% | 1270 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Water Allies | 2 | 2.5% | 12 | 41.7% | 46.1% | 43.4% | 47.1% | 1382 | — |
| 28 | Umbra Alice | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 42.2% | 40.0% | 46.6% | 1205 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 41.2% | 40.0% | 46.1% | 1312 | — |
| 30 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.2% | 3 | 0.0% | 44.6% | 40.0% | 47.4% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Chess | 2 | 2.5% | 10 | 15.0% | 46.5% | 36.8% | 47.0% | 1096 | ↓ low |