Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
4
(6.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
11-10-3
overall winrate
52.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
46.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1304
· median 1324
· range 1214–1351
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.8% | -18.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.1% | -7.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.5% | -4.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
