Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Michigan PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.8 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.5% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.7% | +5.4 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.4 |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Converge Reflections | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Defender's Maul | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aquifer Seneschal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |