Fire Umbra CielTier 3
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
0-4-2
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.4%
avg ELO -7.3 per match
expected value
41.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1038
· median 1038
· range 1038–1038
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.7 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -4.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
