Fire OblationTier 2
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
1
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-3-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.4%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
51.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1242
· median 1242
· range 1242–1242
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Oblation decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
