Fire SuitedTier 2
at Michigan PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 54.8% | +2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seven of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sleight of Hand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ashen Riffle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chance, Seven of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |