Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.0%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1369
· median 1369
· range 1352–1386
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -16.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.1 |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
