Water FractalTier 1
at Michigan PTM Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.2% | +18.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.1% | +9.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.2% | +17.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 35.5% | -10.8 |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost. Losers more often ran: Throne-Keeper Bullfrog, Spalling Cleanse.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stolen Chance | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |