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Wind SeiryuuTier 1

at Michigan PTM Regionals

decks
8 (12.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
41 20-13-8
overall winrate
58.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.8% avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
53.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1385 · median 1346 · range 1156–1652 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
967 Q1 1200 Q3 1371 1750
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 12% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 11.1% 6 3-3-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.5% -1.9
Fire Crux Mage 6.3% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 54.7% +3.5
Water Aetherwing 6.3% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 46.2% -2.9
Water Ravishing Mill 6.3% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.5% -1.8
Fire Aggro 4.8% 3 2-0-1 83.3% 64.3% 54.5% +3.3
Fire Suited 4.8% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 45.2% -2.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.2% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 35.2% -11.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.2% 0
Fire Suzaku 3.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.2% +5.2
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.5% -8.7
Water Allies 3.2% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 53.1% +3.0
Wind Arcane 3.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 27.0% -22.1
Wind Shadowstrike 3.2% 0
Fire Aetherwing 1.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -2.2
Fire Crux Merlin 1.6% 0
Fire Oblation 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.8% -18.0
Fire Slimes 1.6% 0
Fire Tera Mage 1.6% 0
Fire Umbra Ciel 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.1% +8.1
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 0
Water Chess 1.6% 0
Water Genbu 1.6% 0
Water Slimes 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 55.6% +9.0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.2% +6.8
Wind Allies 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.2% +8.4
Wind Astra Cleric 1.6% 0
Wind Chess 1.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 1.6% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.3% -2.7
Wind Silvie 1.6% 0
Wind Slimes 1.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.6
Wind Tera Kongming 1.6% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Orb of Sealing -1.00 0 1 0
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Longtail Grovesward -1.00 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -1.00 0 1 0
Candlelight Hourglass +1.00 1 0 0
Displace +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Stolen Chance +1.00 1 0 0
Forest Cake -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap -1.00 0 1 0
Winds of Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
Harness Lightning -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern +1.00 1 0 0
Lost Providence -1.00 0 1 0
Unmake Duality +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Beseeched Fatestone -1.00 0 1 0
Crystallized Destiny -1.00 0 1 0
The Looking Glass +1.00 1 0 0
Spellward Scepter +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Brisk Windtrotter -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0
Seiryuu's Command -1.00 0 1 0
Topsy Decree +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/41460/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu