Water AlliesTier 2
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-4-1
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
48.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1402
· median 1402
· range 1343–1461
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
