← Weatherlight PTM store championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
decks
6
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-12-0
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
49.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1256
· median 1243
· range 1124–1420
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1247
Q3 1419
1532
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.8% | -6.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 72.7% | +16.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.3% | +18.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Rending Flames, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Planted Explosive, Surging Bolt, Varuckan Soulknife.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Creative Shock
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Dazzling Courtesan
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Surging Bolt
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Varuckan Soulknife
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 95 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 78 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Molten Echo | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Marksman Captain | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tweedledum, Rattled Dancer | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |