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Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 61.2% | +6.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.6% | +10.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 18.6% | -18.1 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.3% | -18.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 4 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Winds of Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ducal Seal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |