← Weatherlight PTM store championship
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
3-6-1
overall winrate
35.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.2%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1263
· median 1263
· range 1058–1468
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1247
Q3 1419
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
