← Weatherlight PTM store championship
Water FractalTier 2
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
6-5-0
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1374–1418
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1247
Q3 1419
1532
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
