← Weatherlight PTM store championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 81.4% | +18.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 17 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Refreshing Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Expulsion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Haunt Reminiscence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |