← Weatherlight PTM store championship
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Weatherlight PTM store championship
decks
2
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1366
· median 1366
· range 1251–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1047
Q1 1247
Q3 1419
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Fire Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Water Zander | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
