EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grex Store Championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Horse and Taxes

61.2%

2.4% share · 6 matches

1st

Fire Aetherwing

62.6%

2.4% share · 7 matches

2.4% share · 6 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.4%	7	71.4%	74.5%	62.6%	66.7%	1227	↓ low
2	Horse and Taxes	1	2.4%	6	100.0%	93.5%	61.2%	65.6%	1346	—
3	Water Allies	1	2.4%	6	75.0%	53.8%	58.0%	53.4%	1495	↑ top
4	Wind Razorgale	1	2.4%	6	50.0%	45.8%	57.6%	54.5%	1423	↑ top
5	Fire Suzaku	2	4.8%	9	77.8%	70.6%	57.0%	58.3%	1347	—
6	Fire Umbra Guardian	1	2.4%	6	58.3%	58.0%	56.2%	55.3%	1312	—
7	Fire Luxem Assassin	3	7.1%	9	61.1%	41.9%	54.3%	49.3%	1517	↑ top
8	Wind Shadowstrike	1	2.4%	6	58.3%	42.8%	52.0%	46.5%	1402	↑ top
9	Fire Oblation	10	23.8%	36	50.0%	49.4%	51.1%	50.6%	1339	—
10	Fire Crux Mage	3	7.1%	15	43.3%	39.5%	48.4%	46.3%	1298	—
11	Wind Seiryuu	2	4.8%	11	36.4%	38.7%	47.7%	45.0%	1229	↓ low
12	Fire Aggro	7	16.7%	33	43.9%	50.6%	47.4%	50.2%	1276	↓ low
13	Fire Suited	1	2.4%	6	58.3%	57.6%	47.4%	49.9%	1430	↑ top
14	Water Aetherwing	4	9.5%	15	40.0%	46.1%	46.5%	48.1%	1336	—
15	Wind Arcane	2	4.8%	9	33.3%	35.2%	44.4%	43.1%	1358	—
16	Water Tera Mage	1	2.4%	6	25.0%	39.8%	42.2%	44.0%	1216	↓ low
17	Fire Umbra Alice	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	29.4%	40.0%	39.4%	1460	↑ top
18	Water Fractal	1	2.4%	2	0.0%	36.7%	33.3%	36.7%	1157	↓ low